見込みが外れる

• Reading: みこみがはずれる
• Romaji: mikomi ga hazureru
• Kanji breakdown: 見 (mi) — see; 込 (ko) — enter into; 外 (hazu) — outside, deviate
• Pronunciation: /mi.ko.mi.ɡa.ha.zɯ.ɾe.ɾɯ/

Meaning

To guess wrong; to have one's expectations prove incorrect; to miscalculate.

A set phrase combining 見込み (expectation) with 外れる (to miss/to be off target). Used when a prediction, estimate, or assumption turns out to be wrong. The opposite expression is 見込み通り (as expected). Often used in business, weather forecasting, and personal judgement contexts.

Examples

1. 天気予報の見込みが外れて突然雨が降り出した。 The weather forecast was off and it suddenly started raining.
2. 彼が成功すると思ったが見込みが外れた。 I thought he would succeed, but my expectations proved wrong.
3. 需要の見込みが外れて在庫が大量に余った。 The demand estimate was off, leaving a large surplus of inventory.

Usage Guide

Context: business, daily life, weather, planning

Tone: disappointed

Origin & History

A compound expression from 見込み (expectation, from 見込む 'to foresee') + が (subject marker) + 外れる (to deviate/miss the mark, from 外 'outside'). Literally 'one's foresight misses the mark.'

Cultural Context

Era: Early Modern

Generation: Adults

Social background: Universal