几率

• ピンイン: jī lǜ
• 漢字の分解: 几 = pictograph of a small low table (nearly, how many, a small number); 率 = 幺 + 十 + 幺 (silk threads on a spindle arranged around a central axis, representing proportion/ratio, rate)

意味

確率（起こる見込み）

几率 is used interchangeably with 概率 in many contexts, though 概率 is the more strictly mathematical term while 几率 is more commonly used in everyday and journalistic language. Examples: 获胜几率 (odds of winning), 成功的几率 (probability of success), 几率极低 (extremely low probability), 几率接近零 (probability approaching zero). It conveys the statistical or intuitive likelihood of an outcome.

例文

1. 医学统计数据表明，定期进行体检并保持健康生活方式的人，患重大心血管疾病的几率比同龄人低出40%至60%。
2. 专家指出，在这种复杂的地质条件下，连续强余震的发生几率依然偏高，受灾地区的居民在正式宣布安全之前不应贸然返回房屋。
3. 这家初创公司的商业计划书写得天花乱坠，但投资人冷静分析后认为，其在三年内实现盈利的几率不足两成，最终决定放弃注资。

使い方ガイド

場面: statistics, medicine, sports, finance, science

トーン: neutral

正しい言い方

• 如果全球升温继续加快，本世纪末极端高温出现的几率将是工业化前的五倍以上。(If global warming keeps accelerating, the chance of extreme heat by the end of this century will be more than five times the pre-industrial level.)
• 运动医学专家会评估运动员不同部位受伤的几率，并据此制定个性化预防方案。(Sports medicine experts assess the chance of injuries to different body parts and use that to create personalized prevention plans.)

避ける言い方

• 几率 for a vague guess without any statistical basis — use 可能性 for general possibility; 几率 implies a quantifiable or at least estimable probability, not a purely subjective hunch

起源と歴史

几 (how many/small amount/nearly) + 率 (ratio/proportion/rate) — 几 in this compound carries the meaning of 'how much' or 'what degree'; 率 denotes a mathematical ratio or rate; together: the ratio expressing how likely something is

文化的背景

世代: All ages

社会的背景: Universal