几率

• 拼音: jī lǜ
• 汉字拆解: 几 = pictograph of a small low table (nearly, how many, a small number); 率 = 幺 + 十 + 幺 (silk threads on a spindle arranged around a central axis, representing proportion/ratio, rate)

含义

Probability; odds; the likelihood or chance that a particular event will occur, expressed as a ratio or percentage.

几率 is used interchangeably with 概率 in many contexts, though 概率 is the more strictly mathematical term while 几率 is more commonly used in everyday and journalistic language. Examples: 获胜几率 (odds of winning), 成功的几率 (probability of success), 几率极低 (extremely low probability), 几率接近零 (probability approaching zero). It conveys the statistical or intuitive likelihood of an outcome.

例句

1. 医学统计数据表明，定期进行体检并保持健康生活方式的人，患重大心血管疾病的几率比同龄人低出40%至60%。
2. 专家指出，在这种复杂的地质条件下，连续强余震的发生几率依然偏高，受灾地区的居民在正式宣布安全之前不应贸然返回房屋。
3. 这家初创公司的商业计划书写得天花乱坠，但投资人冷静分析后认为，其在三年内实现盈利的几率不足两成，最终决定放弃注资。

用法指南

语境: statistics, medicine, sports, finance, science

语气: neutral

正确说法

• 如果全球升温继续加快，本世纪末极端高温出现的几率将是工业化前的五倍以上。(If global warming keeps accelerating, the chance of extreme heat by the end of this century will be more than five times the pre-industrial level.)
• 运动医学专家会评估运动员不同部位受伤的几率，并据此制定个性化预防方案。(Sports medicine experts assess the chance of injuries to different body parts and use that to create personalized prevention plans.)

错误说法

• 几率 for a vague guess without any statistical basis — use 可能性 for general possibility; 几率 implies a quantifiable or at least estimable probability, not a purely subjective hunch

起源与历史

几 (how many/small amount/nearly) + 率 (ratio/proportion/rate) — 几 in this compound carries the meaning of 'how much' or 'what degree'; 率 denotes a mathematical ratio or rate; together: the ratio expressing how likely something is

文化背景

世代: All ages

社会背景: Universal